‘Murdered steak’, burnt duck, and boat people – just another day in Australian politics

Steak and duck

While, in her own words, Anna Bligh might have ‘murdered the steak’, it was the LNP that probably managed to burn its own duck. In Australian politics negative attack ads generally don’t work. They can leave those taking out the ad with a bad taste in their mouths. Graham Young, from Ambit Gambit/Online Opinion, analysed voter responses to the major parties’ advertising campaigns during the 2009 election. Voters were turned off the parties’ messages by the negative advertising run by both parties during the campaign but responded more positively to ads that focused on the party or the party leader as doing and not on the other party or its leader. A number of journalists commented during the 2009 campaign that it did not look good for the LNP during the leaders’ debate when Springborg sought to talk over Bligh.

Given the timing and the obviously high cost of the LNP’s black and white ads during Celebrity MasterChef, the LNP leaves itself open to a number question, one of which is where did the money come from? Given that many of the LNP’s constituents would be farmers, it seems odd to run an ad attacking Bligh during a program in which she sought to promote Queensland produce. If comments in various Brisbane newspapers this morning are anything to go by, people view Bligh’s appearance on Celebrity MasterChef as PR, but also think that it showed her as someone just like them.

Ultimately, Anna Bligh might have pulled off some good PR, with the assistance of the LNP. Today’s announcement that Bligh has negotiated a new trade deal with Moscow will only add to this PR campaign, as it highlights that she is ‘running the state’ and bringing revenue into Queensland . This positive PR might have a greater impact on voters’ opinions and behaviours than negative advertising. I’m looking forward to the next parliamentary sitting.

Boat people

The campaign to demonise asylum seekers who arrive by boat has once again heated up. Andrew Bartlett has been blogging on the human rights issues surrounding these people for some time and, as Crikey contributors have noted, the number of people who arrive by boat is eclipsed by the number of people who arrive by plane and overstay their visas. This campaign seems to be about populist politics playing on people’s fears about ‘the yellow hordes’ and an ignoring of the displacement of people by war and terrorism. Such a fear was central to the way in which the Howard Government used ‘the children overboard affair’. In this case no child was ever thrown into the water, as was argued by the then government. As the reaction over Hey Hey it’s Saturday indicates, Australians might still be struggling with eradicating racism. It would be helpful for the government to present clear information about immigration, including illegal immigration, that mitigates the demonising of people. It seems that the Opposition believes that it still has traction over questions of immigration and border protection. It could be argued that the Rudd Government needs to show more leadership and take the moral high ground.

Conclusion

The media is a powerful force that politicians can use to promote their message—or to self-destruct.

The election predicting game heats up

There has been some discussion both in the mainstream media and the blogosphere as to when the next federal election, particularly if it is going to be a double dissolution, is going to be. Antony Green is predicting a double dissolution election in September 2010. Malcolm McKerras is predicting an election on 31 August 2010. In my own opinion, a federal election is due by 27 November 2010. That means an election is likely anytime next year prior to the end of November. Whether that election date is in August or September is probably purely academic.

Does a win for local democracy mean the demise of the Liberal National Party (LNP)?

There has been significant discussion in the media regarding the failure of Peter Dutton to be parachuted into a safe seat following the Australian Electoral Commission’s redistribution of electoral boundaries. This failure raises some interesting points.

 First, local branches should and will pre-select the candidate whom they believe will represent them best and will take umbrage against the party leadership if it seeks to interfere. Michelle Grattan noted in her Twitter that, approximately twelve months ago, Dutton was quite outspoken on ‘the evils of seat hopping’. I have to agree, ‘what a difference a redistribution can make’.   

Second, Dutton’s defeat raises questions about the longevity of the Queensland LNP, particularly within the context of bickering between the federal Liberal and National parties over emissions trading. It might be recalled that the merger of the Queensland opposition parties has been seen by some as a National Party takeover of the Liberal Party. I read recently that a significant number of members from pre-merged parties failed to join the new party. There was indeed an attempt in some quarters not to put the merger to a vote of the membership. The failures of the Opposition in the Queensland Parliament in recent months might add to this conundrum.

 While the Queensland LNP is ahead of the Queensland ALP on TPP statistics (but Anna Bligh is by far the preferred Premier), the federal Opposition is trailing the federal ALP on a TPP basis. Rudd is leading Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister by a very significant margin. Do these results, combined with Turnbull’s failure to parachute Dutton into the Gold Coast as well as the rift over the emissions trading, point to the Opposition’s need to find ways to become more in touch with its constituencies?  Does the rift mean that the LNP will self-destruct?